Decision-making under VUCA conditions

VUCA

I was recently asked if there is a decision making approach that’s designed specifically for situations characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). I don’t know of a one-size-fits-all solution, but I can speak to what’s needed to optimize decisions made in VUCA conditions. Here are the main ingredients:

Agility

  1. Acrobatic-catThe ability to adjust one’s decision-making approach to meet the demands of a particular problem: For example, some problems must be addressed immediately and autocratically, others are best addressed more collaboratively and with a greater focus on data collection and perspective seeking.
  2. The ability to make high-quality autocratic decisions: By setting up systems that keep stakeholders continuously appraised of one another’s perspectives and data, we can improve the quality of autocratic decisions by ensuring that there are fewer surprises and that rapid decisions are informed decisions.
  3. Dynamic steering: Every leader in an organization should be constantly cultivating this skill. It increases the agility of teams and organizations by building skill for efficient decision-making and timely adjustment.

The most complete information possible (under conditions in which complete information is impossible), which requires:

  1. Collaborative capacity: highly complex problems, by definition, are beyond the comprehension of even the most developed individuals. Collaborative skills ensure that leaders can effectively leverage key perspectives.
  2. Systems and structures that foster ongoing two-way communication up and down the organizational hierarchy, across departments, divisions, and teams, and between internal and external stakeholders.
  3. Systems and structures that cultivate excellent perspective-taking and -seeking skills. These include…
    • Building in opportunities for collaborative decision-making,  
    • “Double linking”—the formal inclusion, in high-stakes or policy decision-making, of representatives from lower and higher levels in the organizational hierarchy or from cross-disciplinary teams, and
    • Embedding virtuous cycles to ensure that all processes are continuously moving toward higher functioning states, and that employees are constantly building knowledge and skills.

Where appropriate, technologies for constructing models of highly complex problems:

  • For a comprehensive overview of options, see Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Theory and Application, by Mykel J. Kochenderfer.

Our flagship adult assessment, the Leadership Decision-Making Assessment (LDMA), was designed for the US government to document and assess the level of sophistication individuals and teams demonstrate on key skills for making optimal decisions in VUCA conditions.

 

Virtuous cycles of learning and instruction

What is a virtuous cycle of learning?

Ideal learning occurs in virtuous cycles—repeating cycles of goal settingobservation (taking in new knowledge), testing (applying what has been learned and getting feedback on results), and reflection (figuring out which adjustments are needed to improve one’s performance on the next attempt). This process, which occurs unconsciously from birth, can be made conscious. One recent application of the virtuous cycle is in dynamic steering, in which decisions are developed, applied, and evaluated through intentionally iterating cycles. The idea is to stretch as far as possible within a given cycle, without setting immediate goals that are completely beyond one’s reach. Success emerges from the achievement of a series of incremental goals, each of which brings one closer to the final goal. Processes of this kind lay down foundational skills that support resilience and agility. For example, the infant who learns to walk also learns to fall more gracefully, which makes learning to run much less traumatic than it might have been. And decision makers who use dynamic steering learn a great deal about what makes decisions more likely to be successful, which leads to better, faster decisions in increasingly complex or thorny situations.

virtuous_cycle_with_icons_4_names

The figure on the right illustrates how educators can support virtuous learning cycles. There are 4 "steps" in this process (not necessarily in the following order):

  1. Find out what individual learners already know and how they work with their knowledge, then set provisional learning goals.
  2. Acquire and evaluate information
  3. Apply new knowledge or skills in hypothetical or real-life situations.
  4. Provide frequent opportunities for learners to reflect upon outcomes associated with the application of new knowledge in an environment in which ongoing learning, application, and reflection are consistently rewarded.