President Trump passed the Montreal Cognitive Assessment

Shortly after the President passed the Montreal Cognitive Assessment, a reader emailed with two questions:

  1. Does this mean that the President has the cognitive capacity required of a national leader?
  2. How does a score on this test relate to the complexity level scores you have been describing in recent posts?

Question 1

A high score on the Montreal Cognitive Assessment dos not mean that the President has the cognitive capacity required of a national leader. This test result simply means there is a high probability that the President is not suffering from mild cognitive impairment. (The test has been shown to detect existing cognitive impairment 88% of the time [1].) In order to determine if the President has the mental capacity to understand the complex issues he faces as a National Leader, we need to know how complexly he thinks about those issues.

Question 2

The answer to the second question is that there is little relation between scores on the Montreal Cognitive Assessment and the complexity level of a person’s thinking. A test like the Montreal Cognitive Assessment does not require the kind of thinking a President needs to understand highly complex issues like climate change or the economy. Teenagers can easily pass this test.

Related articles


Benchmarks for complexity scores

  • Most high school graduates perform somewhere in the middle of level 10.
  • The average complexity score of American adults is in the upper end of level 10, somewhere in the range of 1050–1080.
  • The average complexity score for senior leaders in large corporations or government institutions is in the upper end of level 11, in the range of 1150–1180.
  • The average complexity score (reported in our National Leaders Study) for the three U. S. presidents that preceded President Trump was 1137.
  • The average complexity score (reported in our National Leaders Study) for President Trump was 1053.
  • The difference between 1053 and 1137 generally represents a decade or more of sustained learning. (If you’re a new reader and don’t yet know what a complexity level is, check out the National Leaders Series introductory article.)

[1] JAMA Intern Med. 2015 Sep;175(9):1450-8. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2015.2152. Cognitive Tests to Detect Dementia: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. Tsoi KK, Chan JY, Hirai HW, Wong SY, Kwok TC.

 

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President Trump on climate change

How complex are the ideas about climate change expressed in President Trump’s tweets? The answer is, they are even less complex than ideas he has expressed about intelligence, international trade, and immigration—landing squarely in level 10. (See the benchmarks, below, to learn more about what it means to perform in level 10.)

The President’s climate change tweets

It snowed over 4 inches this past weekend in New York City. It is still October. So much for Global Warming.
2:43 PM – Nov 1, 2011

 

It’s freezing in New York—where the hell is global warming?
2:37 PM – Apr 23, 2013

 

Record low temperatures and massive amounts of snow. Where the hell is GLOBAL WARMING?
11:23 PM – Feb 14, 2015

 

In the East, it could be the COLDEST New Year’s Eve on record. Perhaps we could use a little bit of that good old Global Warming…!
7:01 PM – Dec 28, 2017

Analysis

In all of these tweets President Trump appears to assume that unusually cold weather is proof that climate change (a.k.a., global warming) is not real. The argument is an example of simple level 10, linear causal logic that can be represented as an “if,then” statement. “If the temperature right now is unusually low, then global warming isn’t happening.” Moreover, in these comments the President relies exclusively on immediate (proximal) evidence, “It’s unusually cold outside.” We see the same use of immediate evidence when climate change believers claim that a warm weather event is proof that climate change is real.

Let’s use some examples of students’ reasoning to get a fix on the complexity level of President Trump’s tweets. Here is a statement from an 11th grade student who took our assessment of environmental stewardship (complexity score = 1025):

“I do think that humans are adding [gases] to the air, causing climate change, because of everything around us. The polar ice caps are melting.”

The argument is an example of simple level 10, linear causal logic that can be represented as an “if,then” statement. “If the polar ice caps are melting, then global warming is real.” There is a difference between this argument and President Trump’s argument, however. The student is describing a trend rather than a single event.

Here is an argument made by an advanced 5th grader (complexity score = 1013):

“I think that fumes, coals, and gasses we use for things such as cars…cause global warming. I think this because all the heat and smoke is making the years warmer and warmer.”

This argument is also an example of simple level 10, linear causal logic that can be represented as an “if,then” statement. “If the years are getting warmer and warmer, then global warming is real.” Again, the difference between this argument and President Trump’s argument is that the student is describing a trend rather than a single event.

I offer one more example, this time of a 12th grade student making a somewhat more complex argument (complexity score = 1035).

“The temperature has increased over the years and studies show that the ice is melting in the north and south pole, so, yes humans are causing climate change.”

This argument is also an example of level 10, linear causal logic that can be represented as an “if,then” statement. “If the temperature has increased and studies show that the ice at the north and south poles are melting, then humans are causing climate change. But in this case, the student has mentioned two trends (warming and melting) and explicitly uses scientific evidence to support her conclusion.

Based on these comparisons, it seems clear that President Trump’s Tweets about climate change represent reasoning at the lower end of level 10.

“Humans have caused a lot of green house gasses…and these have caused global warming. The temperature has increased over the years and studies show that the ice is melting in the north and south pole, so, yes humans are causing climate change.

This argument is also an example of level 10, linear causal logic that can be represented as an “if,then” statement. “If the temperature has increased and studies show that the ice at the north and south poles are melting, then humans are causing climate change. In this case, the student’s argument is a bit more complex than in previous examples. She has mentioned two variables (warming and melting) and explicitly uses scientific evidence to support her conclusion.

Based on these comparisons, it seems clear that President Trump’s Tweets about climate change represent reasoning at the lower end of level 10.

Reasoning in level 11

Individuals performing in level 11 recognize that climate is an enormously complex phenomenon that involves many interacting variables. They understand that any single event or trend may be part of the bigger story, but is not, on its own, evidence for or against climate change.

Summing up

It concerns me greatly that someone who does not demonstrate any understanding of the complexity of climate is in a position to make major decisions related to climate change.


Benchmarks for complexity scores

  • Most high school graduates perform somewhere in the middle of level 10.
  • The average complexity score of American adults is in the upper end of level 10, somewhere in the range of 1050–1080.
  • The average complexity score for senior leaders in large corporations or government institutions is in the upper end of level 11, in the range of 1150–1180.
  • The average complexity score (reported in our National Leaders Study) for the three U. S. presidents that preceded President Trump was 1137.
  • The average complexity score (reported in our National Leaders Study) for President Trump was 1053.
  • The difference between 1053 and 1137 generally represents a decade or more of sustained learning. (If you’re a new reader and don’t yet know what a complexity level is, check out the National Leaders Series introductory article.)

 

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President Trump on intelligence

How complex are the ideas about intelligence expressed in President Trump’s tweets?

President Trump recently tweeted about his intelligence. The media has already had quite a bit to say about these tweets. So, if you’re suffering from Trump tweet trauma this may not be the article for you.

But you might want to hang around if you’re interested in looking at these tweets from a different angle. I thought it would be interesting to examine their complexity level, and consider what they suggest about the President’s conception of intelligence.

In the National Leaders Study, we’ve been using CLAS — Lectica, Inc.’s electronic developmental scoring system—to score the complexity level of several national leaders’ responses to questions posed by respected journalists. Unfortunately, I can’t use CLAS to score tweets. They’re too short. Instead, I’m going to use the Lectical Dictionary to examine the complexity of ideas being expressed in them.


If you aren’t familiar with the National Leaders series, you may find this article a bit difficult to follow.


The Lectical Dictionary is a developmentally curated list of about 200,000 words or short phrases (terms) that represent particular meanings. (The dictionary does not include entries for people, places, or physical things.) Each term in the dictionary has been assigned to one of 30 developmental phases, based on its least complex possible meaning. The 30 developmental phases span first speech (in infancy) to the highest adult developmental phase Lectica has observed in human performance. Each phase represents 1/4 a level (a, b, c, or d). Levels range from 5 (first speech) to 12 (the most complex level Lectica measures). Phase scores are named as follows: 09d, 10a, 10b, 10c, 10d, 11a, etc. Levels 10 through 12 are considered to be “adult levels,” but the earliest phase of level 10 is often observed in middle school students, and the average high school student performs in the 10b to10c range.

In the following analysis, I’ll be identifying the highest-phase Lectical Dictionary terms in the President’s statements, showing each item’s phase. Where possible, I’ll also be looking at the form of thinking—black-and-white, if-then logic (10a–10d) versus shades-of-gray, nuanced logic (11a–11d)—these terms are embedded in.

The President’s statements

The first two statements are tweets made on 01–05–2018.

“…throughout my life, my two greatest assets have been mental stability and being, like, really smart.

The two most complex ideas in this statement are the notion of having personal assets (10c), and the notion of mental stability (10b).

“I went from VERY successful businessman, to top T.V. Star…to President of the United States (on my first try). I think that would qualify as not smart, but genius…and a very stable genius at that!”

This statement presents an argument for the President’s belief that he is not only smart, but a stable genius (10b-10c). The evidence offered consists of a list of accomplishments—being a successful (09c) businessman, being a top star, and being elected (09b) president. (Stable genius is not in the Lectical Dictionary, but it is a reference back to the previous notion of mental stability, which is in the dictionary at 10b.)

The kind of thinking demonstrated in this argument is simple if-then linear logic. “If I did these things, then I must be a stable genius.”

Later, at Camp David, when asked about these Tweeted comments, President Trump explained further…

“I had a situation where I was a very excellent student, came out, made billions and billions of dollars, became one of the top business people, went to television and for 10 years was a tremendous success, which you’ve probably heard.”

This argument provides more detail about the President’s accomplishments—being an excellent (08a) student, making billions and billions of dollars, becoming a top business person, and being a tremendous success (10b) in television. Here the president demonstrates the same if-then linear logic observed in the second tweet, above.

Summing up

The President has spoken about his intelligence on numerous occasions. Across all of the instances I’ve identified, he makes a strong connection between intelligence and concrete accomplishments — most often wealth, fame, or performance (for example in school or in negotiations). I could not find a single instance in which he attributed any part of these accomplishments to external or mitigating factors — for example, luck, being born into a wealthy family, having access to expert advice, or good employees. (I’d be very interested in seeing any examples readers can send my way!)

President Trump’s statements represent the same kind of logic and meaning-making my colleagues and I observed in the interview responses analysed for the National Leaders’ series. President Trump’s logic in these statements has a simple, if-then structure and the most complex ideas he expresses are in the 10b to10c range. As yet, I have seen no evidence of reasoning above this range.

The average score of a US adult is in the 10c–10d range.

 

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